The Method applied to
The Method applied to Rugs and carpets
In rugs and carpets, the method interrogates three gates before money moves: age coherence (knot density, dye chemistry, and wear hierarchy must agree with the claimed period), provenance pressure (high-value Persian, Caucasian, and Turkish pieces are systematically reproduced—value invites fakes), and timing risk (record tribal sales in 2010–2014 created a ceiling most pieces will never see again). The output: the exact checks that settle doubt, the ceiling you can pay without losing, and the walk-away line when the story doesn't match the knots.
The Method's take
Counterfeit-pressure law: a Heriz at €15,000 is faked far more than a Baluch at €400—risk scales with price, and every high-value rug tradition has had skilled copyists working since the 1920s. Coherence checks: natural dyes (pre-1870s aniline arrival) fade hierarchically by sun exposure and foot traffic; synthetic dyes fade uniformly or not at all—a "vintage" piece with suspiciously even color is either protected museum-grade or modern. Wear must be democratic at traffic points (center, entries) and aristocratic elsewhere; intentional distressing is uniform and exaggerated, real use is localized and logical. Affordable-loss rule: below your ceiling, buy on your own eye; above it, get a written opinion from a recognized rug expert or appraiser before paying—being right doesn't matter if the market doesn't recognize your authority. Verify all technical claims (knot count per square inch, wool vs silk foundation, natural vs synthetic dye tests, region-specific weaving patterns) with a category expert or lab before pricing a piece as high-grade.
The math
A misread rug—aniline-dyed 1920s Persian priced as natural-dye 1850s, or a well-made Pakistani copy bought as antique Caucasian—typically costs €3,000 to €25,000 in unrecoverable margin (the market will reprice it correctly when you try to sell, and the loss is instant). The 24-hour Insider pass is €100; the annual pass €3,800. One avoided mistake pays for twenty years of access. The method does not tell you what the rug is worth—it tells you the maximum you can pay without losing, and which questions settle the doubt before the wire goes out.
One question answered here saved you a mistake. The engine answers yours — the exact object, the exact number.
Ask the engine — 24h pass €100